Pax Americana Software

Pax Americana

Stock Trading Software

mail@aaronvillegas.com 2007–2026 Historical Data Interactive Brokers Compatibility

Compliance & Disclosures

Pax Americana is an algorithmic trading software product offered for research, educational, and informational purposes only. It does not provide investment advice, portfolio management, brokerage services, or recommendations to buy or sell any financial instruments.

The provider of this software is not registered as an investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), or any other federal or state regulatory authority. This software and the services around it are not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any government agency.

All users are solely responsible for their own trading and financial decisions. Any results, performance examples, or historical data referenced are hypothetical, simulated, or backtested — they should not be interpreted as indicative of future performance. Live trading involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. You should never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Use of the software in a live or real-money environment is entirely at the user's discretion and risk. No guarantees are made regarding accuracy, performance, or financial outcomes. Users are strongly encouraged to consult with a licensed financial advisor or legal professional before engaging in any trading activity based on signals or tools provided by this software.

By using this software, you agree to the Terms of Use, Licensing Agreement, and all disclaimers as presented.

The Problem

Are you still hoping the market cooperates?

Most investors rely on gut feeling, news headlines, and fragmented strategies — then wonder why their portfolio underperforms a simple index fund after a decade of effort.

The S&P 500 returned ~388% over the last 19 years. Sounds great — until a single bear market erases 3 years of gains in weeks, and you're left watching your retirement evaporate while algorithms at hedge funds profit from the chaos.

😤 Emotional Decision-Making

You sell at the bottom out of fear. You buy at the top out of greed. The cycle repeats — and the market takes your money each time.

📉 Unprotected Drawdowns

2008: –38%. 2020: –34% in weeks. 2022: –19%. Most portfolios have zero systematic protection against catastrophic market events.

⏰ Time Is Your Scarcest Asset

You didn't build your career to spend evenings analyzing charts. You need a system that works while you live your life.

Historical Out-of-Sample Performance

Pax vs S&P 500

$500,000 starting capital · 2007–2026 fully out-of-sample (trained on 1995–2006) · Net of estimated commissions & slippage on IBKR tiered pricing · Logarithmic scale · Hover for details

$99.4M
Pax Final Value
$2.4M
S&P 500 Final
19,784%
Total Return
41x
vs S&P 500
Key Metrics

Performance Metrics

0
CAGR (%)
0
Max Drawdown (%)
0
CAGR / Max DD
0
Sharpe Ratio
0
Sortino Ratio
0
Longest DD (Months)
0
Number of Trades
0
Win Rate (%)

All metrics based on out-of-sample results from January 2007 – present, net of estimated commissions and slippage on Interactive Brokers tiered pricing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Era Breakdown

Performance by Market Era

How Pax performed across radically different market environments — from the Great Recession to the post-pandemic recovery.

2007–2010
Financial Crisis
+356.5%Pax Return
−11.0%S&P 500
46.2%CAGR
−9.89%Max DD
+367.5% alpha vs benchmark
Click to explore →
2011–2015
Recovery & Growth
+175.5%Pax Return
+60.5%S&P 500
22.5%CAGR
−10.38%Max DD
+115.0% alpha vs benchmark
Click to explore →
2016–2020
Volatility & Pandemic
+376.2%Pax Return
+86.0%S&P 500
36.6%CAGR
−11.28%Max DD
+290.2% alpha vs benchmark
Click to explore →
2021–2025
Inflation & Correction
+196.0%Pax Return
+84.9%S&P 500
24.2%CAGR
−8.49%Max DD
+111.1% alpha vs benchmark
Click to explore →
YTD 2026
Live
+11.24%Pax Return
+1.1%S&P 500
−5.79%Max DD
+10.1%Alpha
Outperforming by 10.1% in under 2 months
Click to explore →

All figures are net of estimated commissions and slippage on IBKR tiered pricing. Pax has generated positive alpha in every market era tested — bull, bear, crisis, and recovery. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monthly Breakdown

Returns Heatmap

Regime Dislocation

Rolling Correlation vs S&P 500

252-day rolling Pearson correlation of daily returns. Shaded bands mark periods where the portfolio decouples from the benchmark — exactly when traditional diversification fails.

Mean Correlation
Min (Most Uncorrelated)
Max (Most Aligned)
% Days Below 0.30
Strategy Architecture

Six Engines, One System

Each strategy family is engineered for a specific market regime. Together they ensure the portfolio always has at least one engine in its element — and a hedge ready when none of them are.

Regime Fit · How Each Family Performs in Each Market Environment
LTTF MR-Long MR-Short Catastrophe Panic Inflation
Sustained Bull TrendPersistent directional moves
Range / ChoppySideways, mean-reverting price action
Bear / DeclineSustained downtrend & risk-off
Volatility SpikeVol regime shifts, fat tails
Inflation ShockRising rates, monetary stress
Liquidity CrisisTail events, systemic shock
Complementary Edges

Trend & mean-reversion are mathematically opposed. Combining them removes the regime-dependence that wrecks single-strategy portfolios.

🛡
Convex Tail Protection

The three hedge engines are designed to gain when correlations across asset classes spike to 1 — exactly when traditional diversification fails.

📊
Survivorship Over Returns

The objective isn't to maximize a single year — it's to compound through every regime with controlled drawdowns and a stable equity curve.

In 2008 — when the S&P 500 fell −38.49% — Pax delivered +78.69%. The hedge layer earns its cost in the years it matters most.

Equity Curves

Aggregate Equity by Strategy Type

Each curve is the combined equity of every system in its family. Log scale · toggle families on or off.

Diversification

Family-Level Correlation

Pairwise correlation of daily returns (×100 scale). Green = aligned · Red = offsetting · Neutral = independent. The off-diagonal cells should be near zero — that's how the portfolio survives when any single edge fails.

System Architecture

How the System is Built

A six-stage pipeline from raw market data to live execution — every stage is auditable and independent.

📊
Stage 1
Market Data
Norgate survivorship-bias-free data · 8,000+ tickers · 100K–1M ADV liquidity filter
Norgate Data
Stage 2
Signal Engines
28 independent systems across 6 strategy families — trend, mean reversion, and 3 hedge engines
28 Systems
Stage 3
Walk-Forward
Train on 1995–2006, walk forward every year. All results shown are fully out-of-sample.
OOS: 2007→
Stage 4
Construction
280% gross notional via long/short netting. Collision detector + dynamic ranking per session.
280% Notional
🛡
Stage 5
Risk & Hedges
Catastrophe, Panic, and Inflation hedge layers run in parallel — convex protection when correlations spike.
3 Hedge Layers
Stage 6
Execution
Native IBKR API on an isolated VM per client. Real-time reconciliation with alerting on divergence.
IBKR · Isolated VM
28
Independent Systems
12 yrs
In-Sample Training
19+ yrs
Out-of-Sample Track
280%
Gross Notional
Capital Allocation

Where Capital is Allocated

Each strategy family is pre-sized to balance return contribution with diversification. Long, short, and hedge sleeves overlap to reach 280% gross notional while keeping net market exposure tightly controlled.

280%
Gross Notional

Allocations shown reflect the production configuration. Click any family in the legend to filter.

Risk Management

Multiple Independent Layers of Capital Protection

Risk is engineered into every position long before it's taken. No single failure mode can compromise the portfolio.

🛡
Dedicated Hedge Layer

~29% of gross notional is permanently allocated to Catastrophe, Panic, and Inflation hedges — convex protection that activates during regime breaks, not after losses.

Strategy Diversification

28 uncorrelated systems across 6 families means no single edge, signal, or market regime drives the portfolio. Trend losses are offset by mean-reversion gains, and vice versa.

Long / Short Balance

Mean-reversion shorts and inflation-hedge shorts naturally offset trend & mean-reversion longs, keeping net delta low even at 280% gross exposure.

🎯
Position-Level Sizing

Each system caps positions at 10 simultaneously, with per-trade sizing governed by allocation weight. No single name can dominate the book.

📊
Liquidity Standards

No system trades any asset with less than 100K shares average daily volume. Several strategies — particularly shorts and long-term holds — require 1M+ shares ADV. The result: the portfolio is always positioned in names liquid enough to enter, exit, or be borrowed when it matters most.

Real-Time Reconciliation

Fills, positions, and PnL reconcile against the model on every tick. Any divergence triggers an alert and a halt-new-orders state until resolved.

Portfolio Profile

What Allocators Want to Know

Position concurrency, margin usage, and concentration — every metric below is reconstructed directly from the 60K+ trade log across 19+ years of out-of-sample data.

Max Concurrent Positions
Single-day historical peak across all 28 systems
Avg Concurrent Positions
Time-weighted average across the full track record
Time Invested
Trading days with at least one open position
Trades Per Year
Max Gross Exposure
Long + short notional / equity at peak
Max Long Exposure
Total long notional / equity at historical peak
Max Short Exposure
Total short notional / equity at historical peak
Largest Single Position
Single-name exposure as % of equity at entry
Gross Exposure Long Exposure Short Exposure Computed end-of-day from open trades / equity

All figures are out-of-sample (post-2006), net of estimated commissions and slippage on IBKR tiered pricing. Notional uses original entry quantities; equity is daily Pax NAV. Concentration excludes hedge ETF positions for clarity on per-name risk.

Live Performance

Live Trading Dashboard

Streamed directly from the Interactive Brokers account in production. NAV, P&L, positions, executions, and performance metrics update every 30 seconds.

Connecting… ⓘ Why do live results differ from the backtest?
Infrastructure

Compatibility

Pax Americana runs exclusively on Interactive Brokers — the world's most trusted electronic brokerage for sophisticated investors and institutions.

Running Environment
SEC / FINRA
Regulated
150+
Markets Worldwide
$500K
SIPC Protection

Your algorithm runs on your own secure virtual machine connected to your Interactive Brokers account. Your funds never leave your brokerage.

All figures are net of estimated commissions and slippage on IBKR tiered pricing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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